Lessons From 2024
I see that most of the stock tips for 2025 have been published now (by everyone and their mother), which means that the coast is clear for my own in short time. Just as a guide, The Times admits to being 13% on its tips for 2024. I see that its selection contains the typical mix of blue chips that anyone with a dart could throw at the back page of the Financial Times, and stocks that no one has heard of and will never hear of again.
What is clear though, that with the FTSE 100 up 5% this year, the FTSE 250 up 4%, and AIM down 6% in 2024, anyone who is up on the game at the moment in UK stocks is either a genius or a liar. The lay of the land still follows the elected tyranny model, where any dissent or complaint is used against us, or doubled down on. The City is a particularly juicy target for the ideological / class war, which to be fair has already been in place before the new government. More red tape and cost should be expected, as well as more tax for investors in 2025 and beyond. We have already seen that since the pandemic many people have not bothered returning to work: as things stand they are bang on the money. Unless you are a fan of spreadbetting, there is no point investing in UK shares, especially when you look at the contrast between Trump and Starmer. The S&P in the USA is up 25% this year, one can bet that whatever it does in 2025, the FTSE 100 will lag behind.
Hints For 2025
One of the things that might save the UK market in terms of where the indices land will be the level of M&A activity. It is accepted that most UK stocks very often trade at one third to even a half of the equivalent rating than they would as compared to their USA cousins, something which has been reflected in the takeover prices of the deals we have seen in 2024. Presumably, while this remains the case we could see one of the list below from The Times, taken over. The problem is that there are no fresh contenders, and no incentive for private companies to list. This is especially as being on the stock market these days is like being famous without the money, the glory, and the appreciation, but only with the downside.
The list of contenders clearly looks like something of a shot in the dark, for instance, ITV (ITV) has been an alleged bid target for the whole of the 21st century. Anglo American (AAL) highlights the way that miners have fallen sharply towards the end of 2024, Glencore (GLEN) has also seen its share price tumble. Diageo (DGE) deserves to be taken over purely on the genius of the recent Guiness shortage campaign, although it along with Whitbread (WTB) and B&M (BME) getting backed by AJ Bell as takeover targets does smack of throwing mud at a wall and hoping that something will stick.
This Week’s Risers:
In a Christmas holiday interrupted week, it was pleasing to see that stocks that Zaks Traders Café is familiar with, were high on the leaderboard. The best riser was Zenith Energy (ZEN), as it celebrated not one, but two breakthroughs in its Tunisian arbitration that takes it well on the way to a potential $600m plus victory. This is versus a market cap which is still under £20m. Another stock where sentiment has been grievously lacking for the longest time is Tiger Royalties (TIR). Here the bears were also given a nasty surprise, as the investment company went with a new tech angle, something which should ensure a meaningful upside in 2025 and beyond. This may be disappointing to the naysayers. Goldstone Resources (GRL) soared, as it managed to not only freeze the interest on a CLN, but also extend it to the end of January. We have been told that CEO Emma Priestley is a fighter, and this has proved to be the case.
The rest of the glory this week was reserved for a couple of companies on the Aquis market (a company which managed to get taken over at a hefty valuation this year). The first was Valereum (VLRM), up 16%, as it revealed enhancements to the GATE Token Strategy. One is quite sure that hardly anyone knows what this means, but it does sound good, and has done the trick for the shares. Finally, the former Ananda Developments (AQSE:ANA) proved that as well as genuinely having a transformational year, a change of name to Ananda Pharma, along with recent director buying has ensured the shares finish 2024 on a high.
On The Downside
The shocker of the recent past in the small cap area has undoubtedly been the situation at Atlas Metals Group (AMG), where the change of name from MetalNRG has not gone quite as smoothly as one might have expected. Indeed, the mooted acquisition of a producing copper mine to it falling over, really was a curve ball that few might have expected. The only hint that something was awry was the share price which seemed heavy at best. But of course, who judges a company by a slightly wobbly share price? Hopefully, a follow up interview with Chris Chadwick of AMG will follow early in the New Year.
The post The Week In Small Caps: December 29 appeared first on Zaks Traders Cafe.
