Capital & Counties: The Clue Is In The NAV

A thought to ponder: While one may remain cynical regarding the rumoured suitors of Capital & Counties, said to be a Middle East Sovereign Wealth Fund, US private equity, and a UK housebuilder – the detail does not matter, the strategic angle remains relatively straightforward. If only on a risk / reward basis.

capclogo

The rise in the shares after a little dance either side of 270p still leaves the stock some 50p below its NAV. Therefore one would assume that even if there is no M&A there is a value play here. Otherwise, even the meanest offer for this company – say below the 334p NAV level, at even 310p, would be a decent upside from current levels. Perhaps the recent shenanigans at Hispania will expedite the process?

capc

Disclaimer
Zakmir.com is a purely journalistic website – Zak Mir is a member of the National Union of Journalists. There is no intention here of providing financial advice. It is recommended you seek an independent professional opinion before deciding whether or not to take any action with regard to anything written here.

 

Shire: Will It Really Be Takeda?

The jump in Shire shares this morning may have the fundamental back that a preliminary deal with Takeda is on its way. But it does seem that traders may be overly enthusiastic regarding this giant killing move by the Japanese firm. After all, like so many other FTSE 100 companies, management at Shire seem to be in no hurry to go anywhere. This despite many of the blue chips woefully underperforming. One has to wonder whether in many cases their interests are truly aligned with their shareholders.

shplogo

It would and should be easy to believe that Takeda could scrape the cash together to make a decent offer in terms of a premium to sub £30 a share Shire a few weeks ago. But really, Shire should be taken out at £60 plus (judging by the Abbvie episode), and therefore one would suspect if the UK firm is taken out at all, it would be by some larger player. It could very well be the case that Takeda effectively becomes an M&A stalking horse. As well as this one gets the feeling there may be a “final” flush out in the stock towards 3,500p to remove the weak bulls, before any new surge?

SHP

Disclaimer

Zakmir.com is a purely journalistic website – Zak Mir is a member of the National Union of Journalists. There is no intention here of providing financial advice. It is  recommended you seek an independent professional opinion before deciding whether or not to take any action with regard to anything written here.

Vectura: Takeover Retread Or…?

There has been quite a painful pullback in shares of Vectura over the past few sessions. This has been coming back in the usual pattern (for this stock) from a bull trap through the 200 day moving average at 98p.

veclog

At the same time we can see the shares approach the 50 day line just below the current market price circa 81p. What is been interesting in the past is the way that the shares tend to make new lows after failing above the 200 day line. The question now is whether history will repeat itself?

vec

The main help now for bulls of the stock is that we see an alleged revival in jaded takeover talk from current levels in order to snap the pattern that we have seen in place on the daily chart since the beginning of last year.

The other possible plus point on the fundamental basis (one which may be preferred to the bid talk) over the near term other  would be that there is positive news regarding the generic drugs manufacture issue.

This hurt both Vectura and Hikma earlier in the year in terms of the generic version of Advair release. The volatility in Vectura may be more related to hopes and fears regarding this than anything else. Indeed, one would imagine if there was a takeover here it would only come in AFTER this generic issue is cleared up – “mid-2018” at the earliest.

Disclaimer

Zakmir.com is a purely journalistic website – Zak Mir is a member of the National Union of Journalists. There is no intention here of providing financial advice. It is  recommended you seek an independent professional opinion before deciding whether or not to take any action with regard to anything written here.

If The British Media Is A Closed Shop, So Is Everything Else

There are few things that anyone waits 51 years for – apart perhaps from England winning the World Cup. I have waited 51 years for the article that Owen Jones has written “The Britsh Media Is A Closed Shop.” Clearly, I won’t live long enough to see England triumph again.

Scoop

The reason for my relative joy at what is a very sad article is that it explains why I will also never be employed as a journalist in a mainstream publication. Presumably, this would be the case even if I scoop the next 10 FTSE 100 takeovers using a combination of a crystal ball and a time machine. Hence, zakmir.com – a blog surrounded by tumbleweed. But that ship has sailed, no worries.

Young Guns

It is the younger generations who have to carry the baton of having to be twice as good to get half the result, or no result at all. They have to struggle through no fault of their own. But at least after the Owen Jones article they will know the score.

Me And Mr Jones

The real breakthrough offered by Mr Jones, is that it gives the game away: if British Media is a closed shop, then everything else is. This includes business, commerce, Public Life, socially, the lot, it remains as closed as it was when I can first remember it in the early 1970s. Anything of importance, value, status, you have to cross a moat filled with piranha.

A Pair Of Hands

Indeed, I wonder how many people like my parents would have migrated to the UK in the 1950s and 1960s if they had known they were to be second class citizens here as a pair of hands? And that they would always be, not only in the workplace, but in the eyes of the law and everyday life?

The Mirror

The Media is a mirror of society and one of the great gateposts to the Establishment. It indicates that for all the institutions that matter, and all the places that matter, the “Apartheid” goes on.

HRH

Of course, there will be many who point to the allegedly rich tapestry we have. After all, we have just a few weeks before Megan Markle joins the Royal Family. But really Her Royal Highness (nearly) only serves to prove the point. She is exceptional, with star quality.

The White Ceiling

You will find that anyone who gets through the “White Ceiling” is either very talented or very determined, or perhaps just very lucky / rich. The other 99% are nowhere to be seen. If you are a BAME, you have to be better. Much better.

Smith & Nephew: Decent Share Price Reaction

It is pleasing there has been a solid reaction today in the share price of S&N in the wake of highlighting the stock as a perennial Cinderella on the M&A front.

SNLOGO

 

The issue here is that whether there are different parts of the business sold off, or a more holistic deal, the company is clearly in play and will remain so until the situation is resolved given the activist presence.

This should clearly be in the interests of shareholders – who have had to be very patient over the years. 1,500p should beckon either way, judging by the chart trajectory.

SNCHART1

Disclaimer

Zakmir.com is a purely journalistic website – Zak Mir is a member of the National Union of Journalists. There is no intention here of providing financial advice. It is  recommended you seek an independent professional opinion before deciding whether or not to take any action with regard to anything written here.

Smith & Nephew: The Chart Speaks Volumes

S&N has been the ultimate sleeping giant, sleepy management, takeover / breakup situation for many years. The only problem is that it has not happened, despite many false dawns.

SNLOGO

We may be enduring another of them now in the wake of the recent appointment of a new CEO. However, it looks to be the case from the daily chart that in the wake of a gap higher through the 200 day moving average last week – very technically significant, and the new gap higher today, something is going on.

SNCHART

This may just be the likes of Elliott Advisors topping up their holding. But we may now be in a situation whereby unless there is a bolt from the blue negative event, we may regard this stock as being right at the top of the watchlist. This is especially so given the way above the 200 day line at 1,325p we have an implied 1,500p target at the top of last years trend channel.

Disclaimer
Zakmir.com is a purely journalistic website – Zak Mir is a member of the National Union of Journalists. There is no intention here of providing financial advice. It is recommended you seek an independent professional opinion before deciding whether or not to take any action with regard to anything written here.