Arkema (AKE:EPA): 200 Day Line Break Targets €100 Plus

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There has been a solid looking recovery for Arkema since the beginning of January, with a V shaped recovery, helped along by an as yet unfilled gap through the 50 day moving average.

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Now with the stock clear of the 200 day line at €92.74 one would expect a further squeeze higher as bears are caught on the wrong foot. The notional target here could and should be as high as the top of a rising trend channel with its resistance line heading above €100. Only well back below €90 really upsets the idea of further progress to the upside.

Intercept Pharma (ICPT): Could it be intercepted?

One of the few things we know about 2019, and what was known at the start of January, is that 2019 could be the year when consolidation in the pharma sector really kicks in.

This is because the large players are being squeezed by regulation, and generic competition, and will have to look to the smaller, niche players in order to maintain their position.

This means that the likes of Intercept Pharma could be in focus for consolidation by the likes of Novartis or Astrazeneca, and given the rocky ride for the stock since the summer it would be likely that few would be able to argue this is not a good idea.

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With the stock back at major support in the $85 zone, this could be a range play anyway, even without any M&A materialising.

Disclaimer
Zakmir.com is a purely journalistic website and not for profit – unlike the mainstream media. Zak Mir is a member of the National Union of Journalists. There is no intention here of providing financial advice. It is recommended you seek an independent professional opinion before deciding whether or not to take any action with regard to anything written here.

 

The Link Between Perrigo And Akorn

It was announced on April 4 via Bloomberg and beyond that Apollo / CVC were looking to buy the prescription drugs business of Perrigo. All of this may be helpful to Akorn which previously escaped the clutches of Fresenius, and then saw its CEO retire and be replaced by Douglas Boothe.

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He was previously the Executive Vice President and General Manager of Perrigo. What could be salvation for Akorn is if Perrigo with a war chest of $2.5bn from a sale of its prescription drugs business, is that it would then have plenty of cash to spare, could make a play for the generics drugs business of Akorn. Clearly, the links between the two companies are helpful. Indeed, Perrigo has the cash to decide between buying part or all of Akorn in order to acquire the target business it wants. Either way, given the debt Akorn is burdened with, and how its market cap is being held down in the interim, either a part or  whole purchase of Akorn would be attractive.

Give the poor performance of Akorn shares, anything which ends the recent drift has to be regarded as positive. Indeed, the generic drugs part of Akorn could fetch more than the present market cap of less than $500m.

Disclaimer
Zakmir.com is a purely journalistic website – Zak Mir is a member of the National Union of Journalists. There is no intention here of providing financial advice. It is recommended you seek an independent professional opinion before deciding whether or not to take any action with regard to anything written here.

Not So Hostile for Hammerson (HMSO)

Hostile bid rumours surrounding Hammerson are one thing, the shares being bombed out near the lows of the year may be more meritworthy.

Interestingly enough, there has been a spurt for the stock this morning. Technically, we are bouncing off the floor of a bullish falling wedge pattern, with the prospect of a break of the 50 day moving average at 364p and the top of the wedge leading to 400p plus. Clearly, new lows for the year under 320p would not fit the scenario.

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Zakmir.com is a purely journalistic website – Zak Mir is a member of the National Union of Journalists. There is no intention here of providing financial advice. It is recommended you seek an independent professional opinion before deciding whether or not to take any action with regard to anything written here.

Anadarko / Chevron:

It would appear that very often the most obvious bidder can be hidden in plain sight, and this has certainly been the case ee Anadarko / Chevron.

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But at least the rumour mill was spotting smoke leading to fire. What was interesting is that on March 26 shares of Anadarko gapped higher (6 days after the article here on Zakmir.com) at the bottom of the range, and surged again last Friday. The offer of $65bn seems full and fair…

 

 

Pathfinder Minerals (PFP): The Path To 2.40p Initially

Ther has been a full update from Pathfinder Minerals, something which appears to have broken the log jam on both the fundamental and technical front. As far as the fundamental front is concerned the updated scoping study and Corporate plan look to be the highlights.

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On the technical front we can see a break of the red 2014 resistance line at 1.40p opens the stock up to a top of 2018 price channel target of 2.4p – for starters, over the next 1-2 months. At this stage only back below 1.4p would even begin to change the breakout scenario.

Consort Medical: Too Strong To Fill The Chart Gap

Consort Medical has perhaps been on the radar for a little longer than short term traders might have wished for. But since the last update here there has been good work down by the stock. The key level here is the floor of the January gap at 836p. The lowest the stockk has traded at since then has been 843p intraday – and after multiple attempts at filling that gap.

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All of this is important technically in the sense that any stock or market too strong to test a gap floor has to be regarded as ultra strong. At the same time the shares have their 50 day moving average now at 892p rising, and the RSI above neutral 50 at 53 – both leading indicators on a new leg to the upside. The minimum expected here would be a retest of the February peak zone near 1,000p – whatever scenario we are looking at fundamentally.

Disclaimer
Zakmir.com is a purely journalistic, not for profit website – Zak Mir is a member of the National Union of Journalists. There is no intention here of providing financial advice. It is recommended you seek an independent professional opinion before deciding whether or not to take any action with regard to anything written here.

FNAC Darty: Heading For MBO

Perhaps not too surprisingly, since we have entered the apparent twilight zone of the inverted yield curve shares of FNAC Darty have come off the boil since the turn of the month’s speculation regarding the retailer.

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At the time the betting was on the company being taken private by one of its main shareholders, Ceconomy. The latest twist however, is that this scenario may be shelved in favour of a good old fashioned Management Buyout. At least the mooted level for such a deal at €90 remains the same.

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As can be seen from the daily chart of FNAC, the highs for the stock over the past year have been towards €90, and therefore a deal around this zone would not be excessive. In the near term the ideal scenario is that the stock holds the December uptrend line towards €65 as it has so far this week.

Sailpoint Technologies NYSE: SAIL: Potential For Multiple Bidders

Salepoint Technologies is currently in play, and is said to be being looked at by IBM, Cisco and Juniper. They are looking at the $2.5bn company, and how its technology could help their businesses.

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These multiple bidders are interested in Salespoint on the contribution it makes to the space as the security technology it possesses would be a very good to all of these company. That said, the management of Salepoint are happy with their commanding position and strong hand, but could be looking for $40 plus minimum on any exit. Should this situation start to develop there could effectively be an auction situation between large tech rivals with deep pockets.

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It should be noted from the daily chart of Sailpoint that the trend via the price channel of the past year has been point to a top of channel of $45, especially while near term support towards $25 remains in place.