The Day Brexit Really Died: 26 February 2018

Brexit is legally supposed to be a a two year journey from the time a country gives notice to quit. However, it would appear that from the fateful day of 23 June 2016 it has taken rather less than this amount of time for the whole process to be dead in the water. It is now difficult to argue that the best side, and the status quo, has won.

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A Client State

It is worth Googling “The Day Brexit Died” as you will see that the penny dropped via smart commentators (Prospect Magazine) regarding the demise of a“Hard” Brexit just before Christmas. Less than three months later, the whole game is up and the UK is effectively set up to be a client state of the EU.

A British Pie In The Face

It looks as though it will be the case that 26 February 2018 was the Day Brexit Died – paraphrasing Don Maclean’s American Pie. Indeed, the (British) pie in the face for the Leave cause has been delivered by someone who was always allegedly a Brexiteer, Prime Minister in Waiting Jeremy Corbyn. We know the wound is fatal to the cause as its retired General, Nigel Farage, has described a Labour “sell out.”

The Oscars

To be fair, it has not just been Mr Corbyn who has “subverted the will of the people”. There are more thanks to give than an blubbing Oscar winner: among those who can be honourably mentioned in no particular order are – the BBC, FT, Supreme Court / Gina Miller, Barristers, Lawyers, Accountants, CBI, BMA, The FCA for waving through the City of London degrading MiFID II, MP’s, Millennials, Buy to Let Landlords, the CBI, most of the FTSE 100, Journalists, Unions, and probably Donald Trump, as he is to blame for most things at the moment. Even Nick Clegg’s book, How To Stop Brexit may actually have played a part akin to the Butterfly Effect.

A Right To Be Wrong

Now that the game is up for Brexit, there are just a few points to reflect on. The first is how staging a referendum with its wrong result unleashed a political and media panic which has finally reversed the situation on this fateful day.

Love Thy Neighbour

The second is that despite all the Leave punchlines like the £350m a week cost saving, the real issue was never really touched upon: why would anyone living in one country want to be ruled by another country? Japan is not ruled by China, Brazil by Argentina or India by Pakistan. But Remainers in Britain seem quite happy to be effectively ruled by Germany or France via the European Parliament and the European Court of Justice. The Remain argument has always to be inextricably allied to a United States of Europe. It would appear this is the future.

Globalisation Village

But perhaps this aspect of pan border influence is not a killer blow – we live in a globalised world, with free labour movement to achieve subsistence wages, asset bubbles for the rich to surf, and the destruction of communities enabling greater and greater central control.

Europe As An Empire

Over the past forty years the European Union has though, exceeded its initial remits and limits. The historic definition of an empire is that one is usually forced in, and never allowed out without a fight either physical or otherwise. The usual pattern as in the case of the Soviet Union is that no one leaves until the whole edifice goes down.

The Lobster Pot

While the EU has been keen to gobble up new nations, it is quite clear that at the very least it is a lobster pot, and may very well be the infamous Hotel California described by both The Eagles and their fan former Greek Finance Minister, Yanis Varoufakis.

The Great Escape

The theory at least is that given the UK’s experiences to date since 2016, the jury is very much out as to whether we are looking at leaving a Union or not being able to leave an Empire? For instance, the territory of Greenland left in 1985.  However, it did so well before the organisation stopped being a trading alliance and become a political and economic protection racket? Perhaps Catalonia will have better luck at The Great Escape than us loyal Brits?

Author: Zak Mir

Financial commentator, interviewer, technical analyst

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